AI Investment Driving Global Trade Growth
The rising trade in artificial intelligence (AI) equipment could push global commerce beyond current forecasts in 2026. This view comes from WTO Director-General Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala.
In an interview with Bloomberg Television, Okonjo-Iweala said AI-related investment drives 42% of expected goods trade growth for 2025. This growth includes computer hardware, software, and data center infrastructure. As a result, AI now plays a central role in global trade expansion.
Trade Projections Could Be Revised Upward
The World Trade Organization earlier forecast 0.5% growth in global merchandise trade for 2026. That estimate reflected the impact of U.S. tariffs and trade tensions.
However, Okonjo-Iweala now sees room for improvement. If AI trade continues at its current pace, global trade growth could exceed expectations.
She also stressed the importance of recent U.S.-China trade agreements. Ongoing talks between the European Union and China could further support stable international trade.
Speaking at the World Economic Forum in Davos, she noted a change in sentiment. “The atmosphere shifted from strong concern to cautious optimism,” she said.
Strategic Interdependence in AI Development
A joint study by the World Economic Forum and Bain & Co urges countries to rethink AI infrastructure plans. Instead of full self-sufficiency, the report promotes strategic interdependence.
The study explains that no country can realistically build the entire AI technology stack alone. Today, the United States and China control 65% of global AI investment. This includes semiconductors, cloud services, and software platforms.
Smaller and mid-sized nations still have opportunities. They can succeed by focusing on niche AI sectors or by forming regional and global partnerships.
AI’s Impact on Jobs
AI trade supports growth, but it also reshapes the workforce. According to IMF Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva, AI will affect 60% of jobs in advanced economies and 40% worldwide.
In developed countries, AI has already improved 1 in 10 jobs. These roles often pay higher wages and boost local economies.
However, risks remain. AI increasingly replaces tasks done in entry-level roles. As a result, young people may find it harder to enter the workforce.
“Tasks that disappear are often those done by entry-level workers,” Georgieva warned. This trend creates new challenges for job seekers.
Conclusion
AI trade offers a strong opportunity to lift global commerce beyond WTO forecasts. At the same time, governments must manage its impact on jobs.
By encouraging strategic partnerships, targeted investments, and workforce support, countries can balance growth with inclusion. AI adoption, when handled carefully, can support both trade expansion and long-term economic stability.
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